来源：中国基金报
11月5日，有市场消息称，近日境外债遭遇大幅波动的万科，拟于6日下午召开线上会议，与金融机构交流万科经营情况，以及近期万科二级市场债券价格波动事宜。
据悉，深圳市国资委相关领导、深铁集团董事长辛杰，以及万科董事会主席郁亮、总裁祝九胜、公司副总裁兼财务负责人韩慧华将悉数参加会议。记者就这一消息与万科方面核实，获得肯定回复。
明年三笔境外债到期
被视为“优等生”的万科近期也遭遇境外债风波。10月下旬以来，万科存续美元债价格持续下跌，多只债券到期收益率较票面利率大幅偏离。这也导致其A股股价持续下跌，在11月3日，万科股价一度跌至11.07元/股，创下近8年来新低。
随后，万科对外回应了债券价格下跌问题，表示公司基本面没有出现任何问题，债券异动主要是市场情绪波动所致。同时该公司指出，境外市场出现有关公司的不实猜测，导致公司美元债价格出现大幅波动。
不过，在10月举行的一场万科机构投资者调研会议上，万科管理层曾表示，当前不排除对海外债务进行回购的可能性，但要考虑境外融资成本与境内项目投资回报的“性价比”。
根据WIND数据显示，截至目前，万科存续境外债务总共有7笔，金额合计约32.2亿美元。早在今年中期业绩会上，韩慧华就已对境外债状况做过正面解答。
她当时表示，万科上半年在境外完成了150亿再融资，主动提前进行了融资置换和短债归还，因此年内已无到期境外债务，年内目前境内待偿还信用债仅为3.8亿元，各项资金排布和还款安排都在有序进行中。
但在2024年，万科到期的美元债有三笔。其中两笔以美元计价：“万科香港 4.2% N20240607”、“万科香港 5.35% N20240311”，发行规模分别为6亿美元、6.3亿美元。另一笔为“万科香港 3.45% N20240525”，发行规模为14.45亿元人民币。
三笔境外债需最先偿还的为“万科香港 5.35% N20240311”，于明年3月11日到期。对于明年到期的三笔美元债，万科方面回应，已提前从三方面做好充分的准备。
其一是境外自有资金方面，万科于境外持有数十亿的自有资金可用于偿债，二是万科的境外平台前期投资了境内外项目，项目分红、回购、退出等都能提供充分的资金，三是通过银行端市场开展境外融资，万科8月已获取发改委2024年再融资中长期外债额度，并已启动与相关银行的沟通。
市场判断违约概率极低
实际上，在市场看来，万科信用债违约概率极小。一位业内资深人士对记者表示，即使明年的房地产销售市场维持当前淡势，以万科的现金储备和融资能力，偿还境内外短债，基本是没有问题。“即使考虑到极端情况，2024年底以前，万科信用债违约的概率也是极低。”
就在近期，万科交出了10月销售成绩单。公告显示，万科10月实现合同销售金额318.3亿元，同比持平，并连续2个月销售近320亿元。从行业数据对比来看，10月百强房企单月销售额同比下降33.5%，近半数百强房企同、环比双降。
与此同时，万科当前现金状况也较为充裕。截至三季度末，万科在手资金1037亿元。剔除预售监管资金和受限资金，万科三季度末的现金短债比约1.4倍，虽较中期的1.6倍有小幅下跌，但较2022年末持平。另外，万科母公司层面的现金水平是2024年到期债务的1.8倍。
不过，从整体状况来看，万科年内销售仍然出现明显下滑。今年1-10月，万科累计实现合同销售面积2135.7万平方米，合同销售金额3467.7亿元。据此计算，今年前十个月万科合同销售金额同比下滑9.8%。
拉长时间看，2019年1到10月，万科实现合同销售面积3332.9万平方米，合同销售金额5189.9亿元。今年前十个月，万科的合同销售金额仅为2019年同期的约66.82%。
国盛证券一份研报显示，10月百强房企权益销售额环比微增4%，市场尚未明显起色。虽然9月各地政策大幅放松对需求的释放起到了一定提振作用，但是因为当前购房者信心较弱，存量需求释放后新增需求并未跟进，10月后两周市场热度较前两周明显走弱。
管理层多措并举
对于万科当前状况，大股东深铁集团方面的动向也吸引市场目光。就在万科公布三季报当天，董事会通过的另外两个事项值得关注。
其一是深铁集团董事长辛杰出任万科董事会副主席。在业内看来，辛杰兼任万科董事会副主席，反映出国资大股东对万科一如既往的坚定看好和支持，也有助于万科和深圳地铁在业务上的深入合作。
当然万科董事会出现这一变动并不令市场意外，毕竟深铁集团前董事长林茂德也曾出任该职位。
另一个事项则是对激励约束机制、跟投制度等的修订。最引人注意的是，2023年-2025年公司的董事会主席郁亮和总裁祝九胜的工资除了和年度净利润挂钩外，还将引入年度股价变动作为调节系数，一定程度上也是传达出管理层稳定、提升股价的决心。而在万科股东层面、管理层的多项措施下，后续发展有待市场验证。
编辑/ruby
Source: China Fund News
On November 5, according to some market sources, Vanke, which has experienced large fluctuations in foreign bonds recently, plans to hold an online conference on the afternoon of the 6th to exchange with financial institutions about Vanke's business conditions and recent fluctuations in Vanke's secondary market bond prices.
According to reports, relevant leaders of the Shenzhen State-owned Assets Administration Commission and Chairman of Shenzhen Railway Group, Yu Liang, Chairman of Vanke's Board of Directors, Zhu Jiusheng, President of Vanke, and Han Huihua, the company's vice president and head of finance, will all attend the meeting. The reporter verified this news with Vanke and received a positive response.
Three foreign bonds will expire next year
Vanke, who is regarded as an “excellent student,” has also recently experienced an overseas debt crisis. Since late October, the price of Vanke's surviving US dollar bonds has continued to fall, and the maturing yield of many bonds has deviated sharply from coupon interest rates. This also caused its A-share price to continue to fall. On November 3, Vanke's stock price once fell to 11.07 yuan/share, a new low in the past 8 years.
Subsequently, Vanke responded to the issue of falling bond prices, saying that there were no problems with the company's fundamentals, and that the changes in bonds were mainly due to fluctuations in market sentiment. At the same time, the company pointed out that there were false speculations about companies in overseas markets, which caused the price of the company's US dollar bonds to fluctuate greatly.
However, at a Vanke institutional investor research conference held in October, Vanke management stated that currently the possibility of repurchasing overseas debt is not ruled out, but the “cost performance ratio” of overseas financing costs and returns on investment in domestic projects should be considered.
According to WIND data, up to now, Vanke has maintained a total of 7 overseas debts, with a total amount of about US$3.22 billion. As early as this year's interim results conference, Han Huihua gave a positive answer on the foreign debt situation.
She said at the time that Vanke completed 15 billion yuan of overseas refinancing in the first half of the year and took the initiative to carry out financing exchanges and short-term debt repayment in advance. As a result, there were no overseas debts maturing during the year. Currently, there are only 380 million yuan of domestic credit bonds to be repaid during the year, and all funding arrangements and repayment arrangements are being carried out in an orderly manner.
However, in 2024, Vanke had three US dollar bonds maturing. Two of these are denominated in US dollars: “Vanke Hong Kong 4.2% N20240607” and “Vanke Hong Kong 5.35% N20240311”. The distribution scale was US$600 million and US$630 million respectively. The other is “Vanke Hong Kong 3.45% N20240525,” with a distribution scale of 1,445 billion yuan.
The first of the three foreign bonds to be repaid is “Vanke Hong Kong 5.35% N20240311,” which expires on March 11 next year. In response to the three US dollar bonds due next year, Vanke has made thorough preparations in advance from three aspects.
First, in terms of overseas own capital, Vanke holds billions of dollars of own capital overseas and can be used to repay debts. Second, Vanke's overseas platforms have invested in domestic and foreign projects in the early stages, and project dividends, repurchases, and withdrawals can all provide sufficient funds. Third, it has carried out overseas financing through the bank-side market. In August, Vanke obtained medium- to long-term foreign debt refinancing from the Development and Reform Commission in 2024, and has already initiated communication with relevant banks.
The market judges that the probability of default is extremely low
In fact, according to the market, the probability that Vanke Credit Bonds will default is extremely small. An industry veteran told reporters that even if next year's real estate sales market remains weak, there is basically no problem using Vanke's cash reserves and financing capabilities to repay domestic and foreign short-term debts. “Even considering the extreme situation, the probability that Vanke's credit bonds will default before the end of 2024 is extremely low.”
Just recently, Vanke handed over its October sales report card. According to the announcement, Vanke achieved contract sales of 31.83 billion yuan in October, the same level as the previous year, and sales of nearly 32 billion yuan for 2 consecutive months. Judging from a comparison of industry data, the monthly sales of the top 100 housing enterprises in October fell by 33.5% year on year, and nearly half of the top 100 housing enterprises fell the same and both month on month.
At the same time, Vanke's current cash situation is also quite abundant. As of the end of the third quarter, Vanke had in hand capital of 103.7 billion yuan. Excluding pre-sale regulatory funds and restricted funds, Vanke's short-term cash debt ratio at the end of the third quarter was about 1.4 times. Although it was a slight drop of 1.6 times from the medium term, it remained the same as at the end of 2022. Furthermore, the level of cash at Vanke's parent company level is 1.8 times that of debt due in 2024.
However, judging from the overall situation, Vanke's sales declined markedly during the year. In January-October of this year, Vanke achieved a total contract sales area of 21.357 million square meters, with a contract sales amount of 346.77 billion yuan. Based on this calculation, the sales amount of Vanke contracts in the first ten months of this year fell 9.8% year on year.
Looking at it over a longer period of time, from January to October 2019, Vanke achieved a contract sales area of 33.299 million square meters, with a contract sales amount of 518.99 billion yuan. In the first ten months of this year, Vanke's contract sales amount was only about 66.82% of the same period in 2019.
According to a research report by Guosheng Securities, equity sales of the top 100 housing enterprises increased slightly by 4% month-on-month in October, and the market has not improved significantly. Although the drastic relaxation of local policies in September had a certain effect on the release of demand, due to the current weak confidence of homebuyers, the new demand did not follow after the release of stock demand, and the popularity of the market in the two weeks after October declined markedly from the previous two weeks.
Management has taken many measures at the same time
As for Vanke's current situation, trends in Shenzhen Railway Group, the majority shareholder, have also attracted market attention. On the day Vanke published its three-quarter report, two other matters passed by the board of directors are worth paying attention to.
First, Xin Jie, chairman of Shenzhen Railway Group, became the vice chairman of Vanke's board of directors. In the industry's view, Xin Jie is also the vice chairman of Vanke's board of directors, reflecting the strong optimism and support of the majority state-owned shareholders for Vanke as always, and also contributes to the in-depth business cooperation between Vanke and Shenzhen Metro.
Of course, the market was not surprised by this change in Vanke's board of directors. After all, Lin Maode, the former chairman of Shenzhen Railway Group, also held this position.
Another matter is the revision of the incentive and restraint mechanism, investment follow-up system, etc. What is most remarkable is that the salaries of Yu Liang, chairman of the board of directors of the company, and Zhu Jiusheng, president of the company from 2023-2025, in addition to being linked to annual net profit, will also introduce changes in annual stock prices as adjustment factors, which to a certain extent also conveys management's determination to stabilize and raise stock prices. However, under various measures at Vanke's shareholder level and management, subsequent developments are yet to be verified by the market.
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